Pork price increases impacted by weak pork supply. Cutout price increases slowly. According to USAD news service report, carcass price average increased US$9.26/mt in September. Carcass price is US$68.55/mt in first half of November, increases 23% compared to last year. The data of USDA economic research department shows pork price declines 10 cents in September to December. Carcass sales price is US$62.3/mt in the first half of November.Based on data of USDA, corn production is 175.4 bushel per acre in 2017 because of reduced natural hazard and improved corn genetics.
Because of declining live hog and less profit, The U.S. hog slaughter volume is 443 thsd heads, down 3.1% compared to last year. Week slaughter volume is 2490 thsd heads in October which increases 1.4% compared to same month of last year. Carcass weight is 214pounds per head. It means pork supply will be short. Pork stock is 5.97 billion pounds in the end of October which declines 4.7% compared to last month and 0.3% compared to same month of last year. The stock of femur bones reaches the peak and then declines because of Christmas. Belly stock increases 54% compared to October.
Based on declining slaughter volume and increasing pork price, as well as increasing demand in November, pork price is expected to increase. Carcass price is predicted to increase. While loin price is pessimistic because of its increased stock. USDA predicts corn production in 2018 and 2019 will reach 2 billion bushel. Pork production in 2018 will be 26.9 billion pounds and increase 4.6% compared to 2017. It means feed cost will decline. Hog price will decline 8.2% compared to 2017.
(Data of Chinese pork is sourced by The State Council of China and BOYAR; Data of European pork is sourced by EU Commission, AHDB and Beijing Hopewise; Data of US pork is sourced by USDA)